Best And Worst U.S. Housing Markets

Matt Woolsey, 05.15.07, 4:00 PM ET

Live in Seattle? If you own your home, chances are you're celebrating.

That's because the city's median home price in the first quarter of this year hit $380,200, an increase of 12.3% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Median home prices in the Pacific Northwest as a whole soared; in Portland, Ore., prices jumped 8.9%, and in Salem, Ore., they grew 15.6%.

Southern metros also boasted gains. In San Antonio, prices went up 11.2%, and Austin, Tex., prices climbed 5.4%. Charlotte, N.C., and Raleigh, N.C., rose 6.4% and 6.3%, and Richmond, Va., and Norfolk, Va., improved 6.2% and 5.9%.
In Pictures: Best U.S. Housing Markets
In Pictures: Worst U.S. Housing Markets

"What we're seeing now are the areas which still have a strong economy, but didn't have the overheated prices [during the housing boom], are the ones holding on strong now," says Kermit Baker, a senior research fellow at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

In the Northeast, the New York City metropolitan area turned in a steady 1% growth rate, and smaller metros like Albany, N.Y.; Trenton, N.J.; and Allentown Pa.--which improved by 6.3%, 7.1% and 5.8% respectively--helped overcome Boston's continuing slump to lift the Northeast to a 1.2% overall price growth, making it the only region in the black.

Now the bad news.

Cloudy Skies
Median home prices in Florida are down, according to NAR: Tampa by 2%, and Sarasota, Palm Bay and Daytona by an average of 9%. Overall, Florida prices plunged 25%, making the Sunshine State not so sunny. Miami, however, which had been hamstrung early in the housing downturn, improved by 2%. The rally may be tenuous however, as 23% of Miami housing loans are subprime, according to First American LoanPerformance, a mortgage data provider.

"We've had 30 subprime lenders go under, which leads to a tightening of credit," says Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a New York-based real estate appraisal and consultancy firm of lenders nationwide. "That adds one more barrier to transactions, something that couldn't have come at a more delicate time for the housing market. On a national level, there are a lot of markets which are going to have some problems."

The Gulf Coast, where home prices had roared back at a double-digit clip the year following Hurricane Katrina, is one such market. Biloxi, Miss., grew by 15.7%, and Baton Rouge, La., by 9.7%, but the subprime hammer came down on New Orleans, where a 20% delinquency rate on subprime loans contributed to an 11% drop in home values, the NAR reports.

Worse News To Come?
For many markets, things may get worse before they get better. Nationwide, prices fell by 6.6%, a number that makes sense at this point in the housing cycle, experts say.

"When housing prices slip, nothing really changes until you try to sell, which is what we've had happen in the last couple of months," says Miller. "I don't think the housing slowdown has fully hit the national economy yet."

Overexpansion was a problem for most metro areas. Homeowner vacancy rates stood at 2.8% in the first quarter of this year, a statistically significant rise from the 2.1% rate a year ago and the 1.7% average between 1995 and 2005, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Those high inventory numbers flatten prices and make new development less lucrative.

"It's becoming more difficult to put together financing for new development projects," says Miller. "That'll actually provide some constraint on supply, but that's a couple years down the road. You figure the lead on new development is probably two years, so it's going to be a couple years before units stop coming off the conveyor belt."

Moving forward, there is concern surrounding the strength of the national macro economy. In the first quarter of 2007, growth came in at a disappointing 1.3%--hampered by 4% inflation--but the Federal Reserve predicts growth between 2.5% and 3% for the remainder of 2007.

"We do have a massive inventory correction, which will happen a lot easier and a lot less painfully if it continues to happen during an economic expansion," says Baker. "The fear is now that even though the direct housing hit was absorbed, the indirect hit could be serious too. We're into that now, but it doesn't look like it's enough to throw the economy into recession."

Some might disagree. Fears about the ripple effect of the housing market have traders particularly bearish.

The S&P/Case-Shiller housing futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is based on repeat sales of homes across 10 markets ranging from Boston to San Diego. There, traders are betting on a 4.5% decline from now until next year.

"There's a limitation to the futures market, because it only trades one year forward," says Fritz Siebel, a broker with Traditional Financial Services, the largest trader of housing futures. "For 2007 to 2008, the market doesn't look good, but it doesn't mean there's not a bottom around the corner."

Portland still a seller's market, but barely, agents say

Real estate - Buyers rely more on agents' expertise as area homes sell more slowly yet continue to appreciate
Friday, April 27, 2007
DYLAN RIVERA
The Oregonian

As recently as a year ago, nearly any house with a for-sale sign received offers within a few weeks. And anyone with a pulse could sell a home.

Now, buyers and sellers are studying up on the Internet like never before, also seeking more advice from seasoned pros.

That's just one observation among many made by the Portland area's top real estate agents at the 2007 Portland Real Estate Summit on Wednesday. For the fourth consecutive year, Cornerstone Mortgage Corp. gathered top-producing agents from many residential firms for a wide-ranging discussion of the market.

At a time when the national housing market is mostly gloomy, the top agents said they're having trouble convincing clients that Portland's market is different. Here are excerpts of the discussion, including questions posed by The Oregonian, edited for length and clarity:

With all the news and data about a housing slowdown, is this a buyer's market yet?

Billy Grippo: I'd bet the seller's side -- just by a hair, though.

It's still better to be a seller, if you're not a desperate seller. And as long as you realize you're going to base your sales price and your life plans on your neighbor's house that sold last month, not last year.

Sherry Francis: And if you do your homework. You have to prepare your house to sell. You have to clean them, you have to paint them.

Brian Bellairs: There's a lot more homes on the market, a lot fewer homes in escrow, and yet prices are increasing.

That's a pretty big incongruence out there. Days on the market are growing so much, and yet there's pretty good growth in appreciation right now.

Kathy Hall: There's a lot of inconsistencies between areas, close in, farther out.

I'm seeing the $2 million-plus market very weak right now, but at the same time, under $2 million it's very strong, stronger than last year.

There's so many mixed messages going on out there to consumers, to buyers and sellers.

Kathy MacNaughton: We're finding, in the condominium market, under $2 million, it's very healthy. Over $2 million, it's a different world.

How has the slower market this year changed your relationship with your clients?

Peggy Hoag: Last year at this time, nobody would listen to us as brokers. They thought that we didn't know what we were talking about on price. . . . We were struggling with that.

Now, they're listening to us, and they're listening to the (comparable sales), and we can actually price homes at a price that they will sell.

Hall: They're asking me, "What price do I need to price my house at to get it sold?" They're asking me, they're not telling me.

MacNaughton: It's been fantastic, because what buyers want from me is expertise. They come to us as a trusted source of advice, and they didn't do that two years ago.

Mike Escobar: I deal with the Hispanic community. I can see a tremendous amount of people coming into the market with smart questions. . . . They go to the Internet and get a lot of information.

How are buyers' attitudes different now than before?

Todd Prendergast: There's been a big shift since October-November. Buyers were brutal. They were in the worst mood I can remember: very cynical, very negative. And that all shifted come January 1. If that hadn't happened we wouldn't be talking about a seller's market.

Francis: People get surprised because the house they were circling around on -- boom, it's gone.

Lee Davies: There is selection out there. It reminds me of the market from '95 to 2004. You'd want to go show someone five properties on Saturday, and they'll actually be there on Saturday to show.

But when you see it and you think it's good, you have to move, there's no doubt.

Have buyers' changing expectations complicated things?

C. Morgan Davis: Keeping a buyer and seller together is tougher. There's more of a tug of war after the inspections. . . . They're coming back with a lot more of a vengeance.

Grippo: Last year you could sell a broken sewer line, this year it's a lot harder.

M.J. Steen: I'm spending time with buyers. . . . They haven't had to negotiate before. Before, they could bid over it and walk away with it.

You've got to be pre-qualified. You have to have managed expectations going into the home inspection because they all want to renegotiate the price of that house after they've bought it.

Good agents can do that, but the younger agents that just got started don't know how to do that.

The mortgage industry is in turmoil. Companies are going bankrupt right and left. Are you seeing buyers in trouble because of this?

Bellairs: In Portland, I don't think it is that big a deal at all.

As a listing agent, if someone brought in a preapproval letter, last year I would have said "Great, they're preapproved." Now, I'm going to look a little harder at how much they're putting down.

If someone comes to me putting zero down or very little earnest money, I'm going to scrutinize the heck out of it.

Will Haskins: With a lot of lenders going down, it's important for the first-time buyers to know that they still can afford something.

That's going to be more and more important as there's more media coverage of these banks going under.